Showing posts with label graph. Show all posts
Showing posts with label graph. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Producer Price Index (PPI, Graph)


The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in August, seasonally
adjusted. This increase followed a 0.9-percent decline in July and a 1.8-percent advance in June.

Prices for finished goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier.

Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.9-percent decline in July and a 1.8-percent advance in June. In August, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods rose 1.8 percent and the crude goods index moved up 3.8 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods fell 4.3 percent from August 2008 to August 2009, following a record 6.8 percent 12-month decline in July.

Finished goods

In August, over ninety percent of the finished goods increase was the result of higher energy prices, which moved up 8.0 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods also contributed to the advance in finished goods prices, rising 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods climbed 8.0 percent in August, the largest monthly increase since a 10.2-percent rise in November 2007. About eighty-five percent of the August advance can be attributed to higher gasoline prices, which surged 23.0 percent. Rising prices for home heating oil and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed to the increase in the finished energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Finished core: Prices for finished goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier. Accounting for over half of this increase, the light motor trucks index moved up 0.8 percent. Higher prices for passenger cars also were a major factor in the advance in the finished core index.

Finished foods: Prices for finished consumer foods moved up 0.4 percent in August following a 1.5-percent decline in July. Almost half of this increase can be attributed to higher prices for fresh fruits and melons, which rose 5.9 percent.

Intermediate goods

The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components advanced 1.8 percent after falling 0.2 percent in July. Accounting for about eighty percent of the August increase, prices for intermediate energy goods rose 7.1 percent. Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy gained 0.6 percent and the index for intermediate foods and feeds moved up 0.3 percent. For the 12 months ending in August, the decline in intermediate goods prices slowed to 12.3 percent from a record decrease of 15.1 percent from July 2008 to July 2009. (See table B.)

Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods increased 7.1 percent after decreasing 1.4 percent in July. A major contributor to the August increase was diesel fuel prices, which rose 15.9 percent. Higher prices for gasoline and lubricating oil base stocks also had a significant impact on the intermediate energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy climbed 0.6 percent, the third consecutive monthly increase. Accounting for over half of the gain in August, the steel mill products index increased 6.8 percent. Rising prices for primary basic organic chemicals also had a considerable effect on the intermediate core index.

Intermediate foods: The index for intermediate foods and feeds advanced 0.3 percent after declining 2.0 percent in July. A 6.1-percent increase in the index for corn, cottonseed, and soybean cake and meal accounted for nearly all of the increase in intermediate foods and feeds prices.

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor



Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

Follow E F Hutton on Twitter



Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Unemployment Trend Remains UP (Graph)


Savvy investors understand that the market usually bottoms and turns up long before unemployment peaks. In other words, the market discounts the bad news in advance. So it is easy to understand how the market can rally in spite of the negative unemployment report.

There has not been much discussion about the number of people that are falling off the unemployment insurance payrolls each month. Another 1.5-2 million people will stop getting checks by the end of the year. Unless, of course, these benefits are extended. Additionally, the civilian labor force is dropping or the numbers would be much worse.

We will discuss the growing number of people that have been unemployed 27 weeks or longer, and the real unemployment rate shortly.

The uptrend in unemployment is still strong as evidence by this chart.

Subscribe to All American Investor via Email
Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device


Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Friday, August 07, 2009

Unemployment A Picture Worth a Thousand Words (Graph)


Civilian Unemployment Rate (Percent).

You tell me. Glass half full, glass half empty?


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email
Follow E F Hutton on Twitter

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

National Association of Purchasing Managers Report (Graph)


Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in July for the 18th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the third consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.



The current index is 48.9 versus 44.8 in June. An increase of 4.1 percent.

A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent that it is generally declining. Institute for Supply Management
Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

Follow E F Hutton on Twitter

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Reserve Bank Credit Dropping are Higher Interest Rates on the Near Term Horizon? (Graph)


Reserve Bank Credit is peaking. Reserve credit is down from the peak of $2,236 billions during December, 2008, the secondary top at $2,165 billions during May, 2009. The current reading is $2,010 billions.

This series should be watched closely. The current drop in the dollar could force the Federal Reserve to continue draining reserves from the system to protect the dollar from an all out free fall.

This will likely lead to an increase in long term interest rates. However, it is time to start watching the two year treasury security closely.



Note: Reserve Bank credit is the sum of securities held outright, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, other loans, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and other Federal Reserve assets.
Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email
Follow E F Hutton on Twitter

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Real National Defense Gross Investment (Graph)


Real National Defense Gross Investment, Quarterly, Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

FYI.


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email


Follow E F Hutton on Twitter

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Friday, July 31, 2009

Federal Government Receipts Dropping (Graph)


Federal government receipts are dropping. This is a negative especially on the dollar.

This is a flashing yellow light. With the S and P near 1000, investors should now become cautious.

Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email
Follow E F Hutton on Twitter

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

St Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (Graph)



Subscribe to All American Investor via Email
Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Four Week Average of Initial Unemployment Claims (Chart)


The four week moving average of unemployment claims continues to drop.

This week's average of 559,000 compares to 616,00 a month ago.

Subscribe to All American Investor via Email
Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Sunday, July 19, 2009

30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate (Conventional, Graph)


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email



Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Total Business Inventories, Sales and Ratio (Graph)


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $966.1 billion, down 0.1 percent from April 2009 and down 17.8 percent from May 2008.

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368.1 billion, down 1.0 percent from April 2009 and down 8.0 percent from May 2008.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.42. The May 2008 ratio was 1.27.



Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

M2, Money Supply Showing Signs of a Peak (Graph)


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

M2



Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

New Residential Construction, Housing Starts (Graph)


Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

Showing signs of a bottom. However, not enough to stem the tide of unemployment. Might account for 300,000 new jobs.

Much of this surge is coming from new homes for investors with incomes in the $30,000 to $80,000 income brackets.

Housing starts are still running 46 below June, 2008. Permits are down 52 percent year over year.



HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000. This is 3.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 562,000, but is 46.0 percent (±4.3%) below the June 2008 rate of 1,078,000.

Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 470,000; this is 14.4 percent above the revised May figure of 411,000.

The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 101,000.

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000.

This is 8.7 percent is above the revised May rate of 518,000, but is 52.0 percent below the June 2008 estimate of 1,174,000.

Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 430,000; this is 5.9 percent above the revised May figure of 406,000.

Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 109,000 in June.

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Initial Claims for Unemployment Tick Up (Graph)


Current reading 577,506 versus 559,894 a week ago.



Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Monday, July 06, 2009

Money Supply, M2, Continues to Climb (Graph)


Money Supply still climbing but slowing.

Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Unemployed for 27 Weeks Plus Now 4.3 Million and Growing Fast (Graph)


This chart covers the last five years. Currently 4.3 million versus 1.6 in June,2008. Up 40 percent since January, 2009 (1.7 million). 4.3 million is a new all time high and is up 433,000 in the last month.



1948 to the Present. Currently 4.3 million versus the previous high of 2.8 million, June, 1983.



This does not bode well for those expecting a quick turnaround in the economy. If the trend continues it could cause double dip recession.

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Real Unemployment Soars to 16.8 Percent (Statistics, Graph)


If you read Table 12 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report you learned the real unemployment rate is 16.8 percent, not 9.5 percent.

Few people are familiar with the U-6 report that is issued by the United States Department of Labor-- Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 9.5 percent for June.

If you read the U-6 you learned the real rate of unemployment is 16.8 percent versus 10.3 percent in June 2008. To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%

Real Unemployment June
There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

  • Total unemployed
  • plus all marginally attached workers
  • plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

  • marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
  • Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.

Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.
  • About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in June. 618,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
  • Among the marginally attached, there were 793,000 discouraged workers in June, up by 373,000 from a year earlier.
  • In June, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million.
  • In June, 3 in 10 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

This morning the stock market reacted negatively to this report. If you are wondering why--all you need to do is look beyond the obvious. This is what this website is all about.

These numbers do not bode well for stocks and indicate at best, we are looking at slow growth in the months ahead.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Subscribe to All American Investor via Email

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


More from All American Investor



Follow All American Investor on Twitter

Capacity Utilization (Graph)


This graph, a lagging indicator, tells us the economy is in for a long period of slow growth.

When people are sitting around on the beach, instead of working, this is not a sign of the "good old days".

Monday, June 22, 2009

Real Unemployment: 14 Million Americans Now Unemployed (Graphs)


Last week two popular measures of unemployment were reported: weekly unemployment claims (608,000) and the four week moving average of unemployment (615,750). Both showed that the number of people applying for unemployment insurance had dropped week over week.




The previous week another popular measure of employment --the civilian unemployment rate--jumped to 9.4 percent from 8.9 percent.

One number that is rarely reported in the popular media is the actual number of people that are unemployed. You might be shocked to learn that the number of unemployed workers soared to 14.5 million in the most recent report. This compares to 13.72 million the previous month, and 8.5 million a year earlier.

Source: The Employment Situation--Unemployed



While the more popular reports seem to be indicating that the employment situation is improving, the raw numbers show that more and more Americans are out of work. In fact, this is the largest number of unemployed since they started compiling this statistic in 1948.

Another sobering statistic is the number of Americans that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. This number rose to 3.95 million in the latest period, versus 3.68 million a month earlier. In 2008, the number for the comparable period was 1.57 million.

Source: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over



These numbers are particularly disconcerting because many of these Americans have exhausting their Federal and State unemployment insurance benefits.

With the trend of unemployment still rising and the duration of unemployment still rising, the situation is more dire than it appears on the surface.

Many of the so called experts continue to say that the employment situation is improving based on weekly unemployment claims report. The evidence (although lagging) paints a very different picture of employment in America.

Those investing in stocks should take a good hard look at these numbers. The numbers are telling us that the economy is still at risk.

While the employment situation might not be as bad as it was a few months ago, the situation is still very negative.

It is often true that the stock markets discounts all the bad news before it happens. But the question still remains, has the market discounted the worst of the news, or is the worst news still to come?
Subscribe to All American Investor via Email

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


More from All American Investor



Follow All American Investor on Twitter