THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – JANUARY 2010

The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs.

Household Survey Data

• In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up in January, reaching 6.3 million. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of longterm unemployed has risen by 5.0 million.
• In January, the number of persons unemployed due to job loss decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. Nearly all of this decline occurred among permanent job losers.
• In January, the civilian labor force participation rate was little changed at 64.7 percent. The employment-population ratio rose from 58.2 to 58.4 percent.
• The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
• About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in January, an increase of 409,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, up from 734,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million people marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

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Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.0 Percent in September (Details, Breakdown))

Few people are familiar with the U-6 report that is issued by the United States Department of Labor-- Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 9.8 percent for September.

If you read Table 12 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report you learned the real unemployment rate is 17.0 percent, not 9.8 percent.

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.0 percent versus 10.6 percent in September 2008.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.0%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

• Total unemployed
• plus all marginally attached workers
• plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

• marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
• Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

• About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in September. 615,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• Among the marginally attached, there were 706,000 discouraged workers in September, up by 239,000 from a year earlier.
  
• In September, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 450,000 to 5.4 million.
• In September, 35.6 Percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

This morning the stock market reacted negatively to the unemployment report. If you are wondering why--all you need to do is look beyond the obvious.

This is what this website is all about.

These numbers do not bode well for stocks and indicate at best, we are looking at slow growth in the months ahead.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2009

• Personal income increased $19.3 billion, or 0.2 percent, 
• Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, 
• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.6 billion, or 1.3 percent.

To read the full text of the release go here.

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THE Employment/Unempoyment Situation (Bullet Point Version)

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months.

The Situation

• In August, the number of unemployed persons increased by 466,000 to 14.9 million,
• The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent,
• Since the recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.4 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points,
• The civilian labor force participation rate remained at 65.5 percent in August The employment population ratio, at 59.2 percent, edged down over the month and has declined by 3.5 percentage points since the recession began in December 2007,
• In August, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons was little changed at 9.1 million. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job,
• Among the marginally attached, the number of discouraged workers in August (758,000) has nearly doubled over the past 12 months,
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.1 hours

Employment Situation

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Unemployment A Picture Worth a Thousand Words (Graph)

Civilian Unemployment Rate (Percent).

You tell me. Glass half full, glass half empty?

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Real Unemployment 16.8 Percent (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)

Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment was 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

• Total unemployed
• plus all marginally attached workers
• plus total employed part time for economic reasons
• as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.8% .

Not a very pretty picture if you fall in these categories.

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M2, Money Supply Showing Signs of a Peak (Graph)

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Real Unemployment Soars to 16.8 Percent (Statistics, Graph)

If you read Table 12 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report you learned the real unemployment rate is 16.8 percent, not 9.5 percent.

Few people are familiar with the U-6 report that is issued by the United States Department of Labor-- Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 9.5 percent for June.

If you read the U-6 you learned the real rate of unemployment is 16.8 percent versus 10.3 percent in June 2008. To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%


There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

• Total unemployed
• plus all marginally attached workers
• plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

• marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
• Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.

Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

• About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in June. 618,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• Among the marginally attached, there were 793,000 discouraged workers in June, up by 373,000 from a year earlier.
  
• In June, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million.
• In June, 3 in 10 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

This morning the stock market reacted negatively to this report. If you are wondering why--all you need to do is look beyond the obvious. This is what this website is all about.

These numbers do not bode well for stocks and indicate at best, we are looking at slow growth in the months ahead.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Subscribe to All American Investor via Email

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Number of Unemployed Reaches 14.7 Million (Chart)

U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics




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The Employment Situation In June Bleak (Synopsis)

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.

Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.

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• In June, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million.
• In June, 3 in 10 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
• The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed in June at 65.7 percent.
• The employment-population ratio, at 59.5 percent, continued to trend down over the month.
• The employment population ratio has declined by 3.2 percentage points since the start of the recession in December 2007.
• About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in June, 618,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• Among the marginally attached, there were 793,000 discouraged workers in June, up by 373,000 from a year earlier.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000).
• Job losses from April to June averaged 436,000 per month, compared with losses averaging 670,000 per month from November to March.
• Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.5 million.
• In June, job losses continued to be wide-spread across major industry sectors.
• Employment in manufacturing fell by 136,000 over the month and has declined by 1.9 million during the recession.
• In June, employment in construction fell by 79,000, with losses spread throughout the industry. Since the start of the recession, construction employment has fallen by 1.3 million.

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Real Unemployment: 14 Million Americans Now Unemployed (Graphs)

Last week two popular measures of unemployment were reported: weekly unemployment claims (608,000) and the four week moving average of unemployment (615,750). Both showed that the number of people applying for unemployment insurance had dropped week over week.

The previous week another popular measure of employment --the civilian unemployment rate--jumped to 9.4 percent from 8.9 percent.

One number that is rarely reported in the popular media is the actual number of people that are unemployed. You might be shocked to learn that the number of unemployed workers soared to 14.5 million in the most recent report. This compares to 13.72 million the previous month, and 8.5 million a year earlier.

Source: The Employment Situation--Unemployed

While the more popular reports seem to be indicating that the employment situation is improving, the raw numbers show that more and more Americans are out of work. In fact, this is the largest number of unemployed since they started compiling this statistic in 1948.

Another sobering statistic is the number of Americans that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. This number rose to 3.95 million in the latest period, versus 3.68 million a month earlier. In 2008, the number for the comparable period was 1.57 million.

Source: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over

These numbers are particularly disconcerting because many of these Americans have exhausting their Federal and State unemployment insurance benefits.

With the trend of unemployment still rising and the duration of unemployment still rising, the situation is more dire than it appears on the surface.

Many of the so called experts continue to say that the employment situation is improving based on weekly unemployment claims report. The evidence (although lagging) paints a very different picture of employment in America.

Those investing in stocks should take a good hard look at these numbers. The numbers are telling us that the economy is still at risk.

While the employment situation might not be as bad as it was a few months ago, the situation is still very negative.

It is often true that the stock markets discounts all the bad news before it happens. But the question still remains, has the market discounted the worst of the news, or is the worst news still to come?

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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• Bond Vigilantes Take over in the Long End (Graph)
• Ten Year Treasury Yield in Orbit (Graph)
• Ten Year Interest Rates Rising (Chart)
  
• Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage
• Systemic Risk Defined--Too Big to Fail
• Ray Dalio on the current state of affairs in the market
• Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion
• 60 Minutes -- Cold Fusion

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Mortgage Refinance and Loan Market Deteriorates

Are higher interesting rates effecting refinancing? Is the Housing Market picking up?

Refinancing

• The Refinance Index dropped 23.3 percent to 1998.1 from 2605.7.
• The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Refinance Index is down 19.6 percent.
• The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 54.1 percent of total applications from 59.4 percent the previous week.

Mortgage Loans

• The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 514.4, a decrease of 15.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 611.0 one week earlier.
• The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 13.5 percent. The Purchase Index decreased 3.5 percent to 261.2 from 270.7 one week earlier.

***Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2009.

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Real Unemployment Jumps to 16.4 Percent (Graph)

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment jumped to 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

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U-6

• Total unemployed
• plus all marginally attached workers
• plus total employed part time for economic reasons
• as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.4% .

This paints a very ugly picture for the future.

Unemployment rose to 25 percent during the Great Depression.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, about half the
average monthly decline for the prior 6 months, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unem-
ployment rate continued to rise, increasing from 8.9 to 9.4 percent.
Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while declines moderated
in construction and several service-providing industries.

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Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million
in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start
of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has
risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-
age points.

Unemployment rates rose in May for adult men (9.8 percent), adult
women (7.5 percent), whites (8.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent).
The jobless rates for teenagers (22.7 percent) and blacks (14.9 percent)
were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was
6.7 percent in May, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8 percent a year
earlier.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs rose by 732,000 in May to 9.5 million. This group has in-
creased by 5.8 million since the start of the recession.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
increased by 268,000 over the month to 3.9 million and has tripled since
the start of the recession.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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