EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2009

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month.

In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.

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Household Survey Data

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (10.5 per-cent), adult women (7.9 percent), teenagers (26.7 percent), whites (9.3 per-cent), blacks (15.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent) showed little change in November. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell by 463,000 in November. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 293,000 to 5.9 million. The percentage of unemployed persons jobless for 27 weeks or more increased by 2.7 percentage points to 38.3 percent. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed in November at 65.0 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.5 percent.(See table A-1.)

The number of people working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November at 9.2 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 861,000 discouraged workers in November, up from 608,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November (-11,000). Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care. Since the recession began, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment declined by 27,000 over the month. Job losses had averaged 117,000 per month during the 6 months ending in April and 63,000 per month from May through October. In November, construction job losses were concentrated among nonresidential specialty trade
contractors (-29,000).

Manufacturing employment fell by 41,000 in November. The average monthly decline for the past 5 months (-46,000) was much lower than the average monthly job loss for the first half of this year (-171,000). About 2.1 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since December 2007; the majority of this decline has occurred in durable goods manufacturing (-1.6 million).

Employment in the information industry fell by 17,000 in November. About half of the job loss occurred in its telecommunications component (-9,000).

There was little change in wholesale and retail trade employment in November. Within retail trade, department stores added 8,000 jobs over the month.

The number of jobs in transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality showed little change over the month.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November. Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding 52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by 117,000.

Health care employment continued to rise in November (21,000), with not able gains in home health care services (7,000) and hospitals (7,000). The health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.4 hours. Factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.0 hour. (See table B-2.)

In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $18.74. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.6 percent. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.

_____________
The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on Friday, January 8, 2010, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 950 articles with more than 8,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- All Sectors Report

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000),
and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job
loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average
decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised
from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -
467,000 to -443,000.

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2009


Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000),
and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job
loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average
decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors.

Household Survey Data

In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million. The
unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, little changed for the second
consecutive month. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (9.8
percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites
(8.6 percent), blacks (14.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.3 percent)
were little changed in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.3
percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
rose by 584,000 over the month to 5.0 million. In July, 1 in 3 unemploy-
ed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage
point in July to 65.5 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 59.4
percent, was little changed over the month but has declined by 3.3 per-
centage points since the recession began in December 2007. (See
table A-1.)

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in July
at 8.8 million. The number of such workers rose sharply in the fall and
winter but has been little changed for 4 consecutive months.
(See table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in July, 709,000 more than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals, who were not in the labor force, wanted
and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the
prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See
table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers
in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently
looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.
The other 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force
in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey
for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 247,000 in July. From May
to July, job losses averaged 331,000 per month, compared with losses
averaging 645,000 per month from November to April. Since December
2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.7 million. (See table B-1.)

Employment in construction declined by 76,000 in July, about in line
with the average for the past 3 months (-73,000). Employment had de-
creased by 117,000 a month on average from November to April.

Manufacturing employment fell by 52,000 in July and has declined by
2.0 million since the recession began. In motor vehicles and parts,
fewer workers than usual were laid off in July for seasonal retool-
ing. As a result, the estimate of employment for the industry rose
by 28,000 after seasonal adjustment. In large part, July's seasonally-
adjusted increase reflects the fact that previous job cuts had been
so extensive that there were fewer workers to lay off during the sea-
sonal shutdown. Elsewhere in manufacturing, several industries con-
tinued to lose jobs in July, including machinery (-15,000) and fabri-
cated metal products (-14,000).

In July, retail trade employment declined by 44,000. Job losses in the
industry had averaged 27,000 per month over the prior 3 months. Em-
ployment in wholesale trade fell by 19,000 in July, with the majority
of the decline occurring among durable goods wholesalers.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend
down in July (-38,000); the industry has shed 1.5 million jobs since
the start of the recession. Within professional and business services,
employment in the temporary help industry edged down in July. While
temporary help has lost 844,000 jobs since the recession began, the
declines have lessened substantially over the past 3 months.

Transportation and warehousing lost 22,000 jobs in July. Since May,
the average monthly job loss was half the average monthly decline for
November through April (-17,000 versus -34,000).

Financial activities employment continued to trend down in July
(-13,000). The average monthly decline for this industry was 23,000
over the past 3 months compared with 46,000 per month from November
through April. Since the start of the recession, the financial acti-
vities industry has lost 501,000 jobs. Employment in information de-
clined by 16,000 in July, including losses in publishing and telecom-
munications.

Health care employment increased by 20,000 in July, about in line
with the average monthly gain for the first half of this year but
down from an average monthly increase of 30,000 during 2008. Employ-
ment in lei-sure and hospitality has been little changed over the
past 3 months.

In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory work-
ers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours.
The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Fac-
tory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)

In July, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent,
to $18.56. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 2.5 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen
by only 1.0 percent due to declines in the average workweek. (See
table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised
from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -
467,000 to -443,000.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Ticks Up (Chart)

Slight up tick but still below 5 percent. Fed buying of mortgage backed securities and treasuries is still holding rates down.

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Real Unemployment 15.6 Percent

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment jumped to 8.5 percent.

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

• Total unemployed
• plus all marginally attached workers
• plus total employed part time for economic reasons
• as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 15.6 % (the non-seasonally adjusted number is worse at 16.2 %). This compares to 9.1 percent reported March, 2008.

This paints a very ugly picture for the future.

Unemployment rose to 25 percent during the Great Depression.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Dollar versus Euro Exchange Rate (Chart)

The chart has an interesting long term double bottom. The chart is evidencing a fear of inflation in the U. S. Along with the Chart on Money Supply, M2, these series should be watched closely.

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30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (Chart)

Source : St Louis Federal Reserve Bank

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Unemployment Rate Food for Thought (Chart)

Unemployment 1980-1983 (Civilian Labor Force)

• In 1980 unemployment rose to 7.7 million
• In 1981 unemployment rose to 9.2 million
• In 1982 unemployment rose to 12 million

Unemployment 2007-2009 (Civilian Labor Force)

• In 2007 unemployment rose to 7.5 million
• In 2008 unemployment rose to 11.1 million
• In 2009 unemployment rose to 12.5 million (February, 2009)

Unemployment Rate 1980-2009 (current 8.1 percent)

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

'Option ARM' mortgages were agressively marketed by banks because they generated huge amounts of phantom profits. Using generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, banks could count as revenue the highest amount of an Option ARM payment -- the so-called fully amortized amount -- even when borrowers made only the minimum payment. In other words, banks could claim "phantom income" that they never received and in the current scenario will never receive. This "phantom income" inflated reported earnings and allowed bank executives playing this game to receive enormous bonus income and enjoy dramatically inflated stock prices. Many now defunct banks, and soon to be defunct banks, reported inflated earnings that were bolstered by this phantom income. It was not unusual for "phantom income" to account for more than half of the earnings being reported.

James Grant wrote that negative-amortization accounting is "frankly a fraudulent gambit. But what it lacks in morality, it compensates for in ingenuity."--Grant's Interest Rate Observer

He wrote this back in 2006.

Default rates on so called 'Option ARM' mortgages are rising fast.

As of December, 28% of option ARMs were delinquent or in foreclosure, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a data firm that analyzes mortgage performance.

Nearly 61% of option ARMs originated in 2007 will eventually default, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs.

This sobering news indicates that the bad news from the housing market is far from over and is not likely discounted in the stock markets.

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An 'Option ARM' is typically a 30-year adjustable rate mortgage that initially offers the borrower four monthly payment options: a specified minimum payment, an interest-only payment, a 15-year fully amortizing payment, or a 30-year fully amortizing payment. These types of loans are also called "pick-a-payment" or "pay-option" ARMs.

'Option ARMs' are particularly toxic because they allow the borrower to make a small minimum payment each month with the unpaid part of the monthly payment being added to the principle of the mortgage outstanding. In other words, these mortgages are subject to severe negative amortization. If you make the minimum payment, the principle amount you owe on the mortgage loan goes up each and every month. Current statistics indicate that 80 percent of the consumers owning these loans selected the minimum payment option.

Let's say, for example, that the fully amortized monthly payment is set at $1500. The homeowner decides to elect the minimum payment (the option) and pays $1000. The unpaid $500 is then added to the mortgage's principle balance outstanding. It only gets worse. Not only does the amount owed grow each month; this higher loan balance is immediately reflected in the next month's calculation.

The owner of an 'Option ARM' is borrowing the difference between the minimum payment and fully amoritized amount of the loan each month. In effect, the option arm mortgage holder is making a new loan each month and this amount is tacked onto the existing mortgage. Then the mortgage holder ends up paying interest not only on the increasing principle but also interest on interest. Sounds a little like loan sharking--doesn't it?

It is easy to see that the amount owed on an option ARM mortgage could grow fast. Imagine watching the amount you owe on your mortgage go up each month as you make the minimum payment. It only gets worse. This 'ticking time bomb" of a mortgage has another toxic feature built in--they reset once the principle balance owed hits 110-125% of the original loan. This fully amortized amount includes the original loan amount plus all the negative amortization. So while it appears that an 'Option ARM' works like a typical adjustable rate mortgage this in not true. A standard adjustable rate mortgages has an annual cap and the interest rate can only rise by 1-2% a year. This is true in an "option ARM" with one exception--when the 110-125% cap is hit the mortgage fully amortizes and the morgage resets to the market. This means a monster sized jump in the monthly payment. It is likely that the owner of the 'Option ARM' will see the monthly mortgage payment nearly double when the cap is hit.

Current owners of these "time bombs" are now in the unenviable postion of watching the amount they owe on the mortgage go up, the amount of their monthy payment skyrocket, and the value of the house drop like a lead stone. Talk about a double edged sword. Or is that three edges?

It appears most American's are making an easy decisions on these loans--walk away, stop paying, and go to foreclosure.

Nearly $750 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs, were issued from 2004 to 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.

Rising delinquencies are creating fresh challenges for companies such as Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. that acquired troubled option-ARM lenders.

Interestingly, most 'Option ARMs' were issued to people with an above sub-prime credit rating. However, it is well known that many of these mortgage holders bought homes they intended to sell "quickly" for a profit. In effect, they were speculating in the housing market. What better way to keep the payment low than with the 'Option ARM' mortgage.

'Option ARM' mortgages were agressively marketed by banks because they generated huge amounts of phantom profits. Using generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, banks could count as revenue the highest amount of an Option ARM payment -- the so-called fully amortized amount -- even when borrowers made only the minimum payment. In other words, banks could claim "phantom income" that they never received and in the current scenario will never receive. This "phantom income" inflated reported earnings and allowed bank executives playing this game to receive enormous bonus income and enjoy dramatically inflated stock prices. Many now defunct banks, and soon to be defunct banks, reported inflated earnings that were bolstered by this phantom income. It was not unusual for "phantom income" to account for more than half of the earnings being reported.

James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer wrote that negative-amortization accounting is "frankly a fraudulent gambit. But what it lacks in morality, it compensates for in ingenuity."

He wrote this back in 2006.

Many banks moved defaulted 'Option ARMs' into "held for sale accounts". This shady accounting practice allowed banks to sequester or "hide" the loans from investors. Under normal economic conditions these loans would be sold to collection agencies or investors. However, given the enormous amounts of these loans, their uncertain futures, and the uncertainty in the market place they are now nearly impossible to sell.

When you hear proposals for the Federal government to buy "toxic assets" these are the types of loans that bankers want taxpayers to take off their hands. The bankers that issued three quarters of a billion dollars of Option Arms did so to enrich themselves.

• They have already received obscene bonuses and sold inflated stock bolstered by "phantom income".
• They now want to pass these assets to taxpayers via the bailout.
• They want us to bail them out so they can stay in their jobs.

I continue to wonder if anyone in Washington understands this scam? Or, are they going to perpetuate the scam and pass the buck to our children?

It should be mentioned that banks paid higher than usual commissions on these loans to the "hordes" of unregulated independent salespeople they used to "huckster" this product. It is already well documented that many of these so called "mortgage bankers" used pressure tactics to convince consumers that an 'Option ARM' was a good thing and that they would benefit. They might have failed to mention the onerous prepayment fees that came with these mortgages and it not likely that they explained the how negative amortization worked. I wonder if they fully disclosed that the loan became full amortized when the 110-125% cap limit was hit? Did they explain that the cap limit would be hit within five years if they made the minimum payment; and that, the monthly payment could nearly double or worse?

I believe most stock market investors think that the effects of the housing crisis has been discounted by the markets. This is not likely and the potential fallout from the coming 'Option ARMs' explosion is still to be seen.

We have not yet reached the worst part of the 'Option ARM' cycle. The news on these toxic loans is going to get worse beginning in April when thousands of Option ARM mortgage holders are going to see their monthly payments spike. This phenomena is going to continue until 2010 once it starts.

I wonder if investors understand how this will effect the banks that are still holding these loans? How the shock wave from this explosion is likely to effect banks that do business with these banks? How this might effect consumers, employment, and the psyche of investors? Uncertainty does not usually lead to sustained rallies in the markets. Of course, the market might take a tumble and discount this information at any time.

Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage