Showing posts with label swaps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swaps. Show all posts

Saturday, June 13, 2009

FED Loans to AIG for Credit Default Swaps (Maiden Lane III, Graph)


On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began extending credit to Maiden Lane III LLC.

This limited liability company was formed to purchase multi-sector collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) on which the Financial Products group of American International Group, Inc (AIG) had written credit default swap (CDS) contracts.

Net portfolio holding of Maiden Lane III at peak $28.085 billion (December 24, 2008). Current holding $19.876 billion.

FED continuing to assume risks of these credit default swap transactions.

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Monday, March 09, 2009

Federal Reserve Bank Balance Sheet Exploding (includes Chart)


The chart below from the St Louis Fed is disturbing. The chart depicts the Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve Bank. As you can see the balance sheet has soared since mid-September 2008. This rise is unprecedented and was caused by the financial situation beginning with Bear Stears, Lehman, and AIG.


The Fed now owns $27.0 Billion of poor quality assets from the troubles at Bear Stearns. It owns another $46.7 Billion from AIG. In addition, The FRB now owns $316.2 Billion in a Commercial Paper Funding Facility; and, $465 Billion in Central bank liquidity swaps. Prior to this crisis both of the last two number were zero. Next, the Fed is being instructed to start buying mortgage backed securities from distressed banks. This will balloon the monetary base once again.
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The U.S. monetary base has increased from approximately $890 billion to $1,740 billion--doubling in a little more than 3 months. This is unprecedented and is represented by the blue line climbing straight up the right side of the chart.

Right now, there is little concern about inflation. However, there should be concern because if markets do not become normalized soon, the Fed will not be able to sell these distressed assets without taking enormous losses. If the Fed is unable to unwind these assets in an orderly fashion then inflation will almost certainly come back with a vengeance.

Gold, oil, and commodity prices should be watched very closely by investors. Even a slight pick up in demand is likely to send commodity price up sharply. Weather factors could also be a factor in the major growing regions of the United States this year--right now it is very dry, not a good condition.

Rises in the monetary base often lead to rises in inflation. The current increase in the monetary base started in the later part of 2007; and then took off with a vengeance in September 2008. There is usually a 12-18 month lag before inflation hits. We are coming into the window right now.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. In addition to being an experienced writer he taught at the University of Georgia , was an Associate Director and Limited Partner at Bear Stearns, was CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. Bob currently resides in Delray Beach, FL where he cares for his mother, Dorothy, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. His content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.




Sunday, January 18, 2009

The End of the Wall Street Boom


Michael Lewis is best known for his books Liar's Poker, The New New Thing,  and Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.  Lewis started his career in finance as a bond trader at Solomon Brothers. In Liar's Poker he gave a first-person account of how bond traders and salesmen truly work, their personalities, and their culture. The account was less than flattering to most and lead Lewis to conclude that anyone could make millions on Wall Street if they were in the "right place at the right time".

In this new article, The End of the Wall Street Boom, Lewis gives the best account of of the subprime mortgage business and the "phoney baloney" use of credit default swaps currently available. He delves into the craziness of it all and names many of the key players. It is a very good description of greed gone wrong.
I had been waiting for the end of Wall Street. The outrageous bonuses, the slender returns to shareholders, the never-ending scandals, the bursting of the internet bubble, the crisis following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management: Over and over again, the big Wall Street investment banks would be, in some narrow way, discredited. Yet they just kept on growing, along with the sums of money that they doled out to 26-year-olds to perform tasks of no obvious social utility.
He couldn’t figure out exactly how the rating agencies justified turning BBB loans into AAA-rated bonds. “I didn’t understand how they were turning all this garbage into gold".
The reason they did this was that the rating agencies, presented with the pile of bonds backed by dubious loans, would pronounce most of them AAA. These bonds could then be sold to investors—pension funds, insurance companies—who were allowed to invest only in highly rated securities. “I cannot fucking believe this is allowed—I must have said that a thousand times in the past two years,” Eisman says.
“We have a simple thesis,” Eisman explained. “There is going to be a calamity, and whenever there is a calamity, Merrill is there.”
This was what they had been waiting for: total collapse. “The investment-banking industry is fucked,” Eisman had told me a few weeks earlier. “These guys are only beginning to understand how fucked they are. It’s like being a Scholastic, prior to Newton. Newton comes along, and one morning you wake up: ‘Holy shit, I’m wrong!’ ” Now Lehman Brothers had vanished, Merrill had surrendered, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were just a week away from ceasing to be investment banks. The investment banks were not just fucked; they were extinct.

The End of the Wall Street Boom


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