Fed Monetizing Debt -- How long before the Inflation Comes?

No matter how you cut or slice it, the FED is going to monetize debt. This means you want to be owning stocks and ETFs that benefit from an increase in inflation.

Over the next week, we will be putting up some of our ideas on how to take advantage of this scenario.

If you have been following the charts on All American Investor -- you noticed that I have been talking about rising rates in the ten and thirty year treasuries for a few weeks. If you are not paying close attention to this as in investor you are making a big mistake.

The bond vigilantes are coming back, and soon with a vengeance. Longer dated treasury interest rates are drifting up. This, in spite, of massive buying of treasuries by the FED -- we showed the balance sheet on Saturday.

Here is a snippet from the latest FOMC release:

As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.

Buy $300 billion of treasuries by Autumn?

The best way to think of the current scenario is like boiling water in a tea pot. Sooner or later, the whistle will blow.

Don't like the above? Remember, I am the same guy that predicted this really in stocks when I wrote:

• They call me crazy -- S and P 900-1000
• and, Stocks Don't Fight the Tape.

There is a lot of chicken on the hill. My guess here right now is: material stocks, commodity stocks, related ETFs and short the long bond.

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Bad Omen for U. S. Government Debt

The cost of buying a credit default sway (CDS) on U. S. government debt is soaring. The spread has widened from 14 basis points a year ago to 97 basis points now. To put this in perspective, the cost to buy insurance against the possible default of U.S. government bonds (sovereign debt) has risen to $97,000 per $1,000,000 of debt. Yikes. This makes the cost of buying insurance roughly equivalent to that of France.

The potential for a downgrade of U. S. sovereign debt is listed as considerable by Moody's. Moody's describes the current situation for the debt as:

Resilient Aaa, whose ratings are being tested but, in our view, display sufficient capacity to grow out of their debt and repair the damage.

Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now

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PIMCOs Gross likes Muni Bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

Municipal bonds are among the best buying opportunities now as states line up for billions in federal aid from the incoming Barack Obama administration, said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the giant bond firm PIMCO.

Other strategies offered by Gross in his January investment newsletter were buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and certain investment-grade corporate bonds.

By contrast, in the Treasury market, "low yields offer little reward and increasing risk," given ballooning federal budget deficits, he said.

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PIMCO's Gross says muni bonds and TIPS "attractive"

By Ros Krasny

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Municipal bonds are among the best buying opportunities now as states line up for billions in federal aid from the incoming Barack Obama administration, said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the giant bond firm PIMCO.

Other strategies offered by Gross in his January investment newsletter were buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and certain investment-grade corporate bonds.

By contrast, in the Treasury market, "low yields offer little reward and increasing risk," given ballooning federal budget deficits, he said.

Gross noted that requests for aid from municipalities and states total nearly $1 trillion "and to think California or New York City would be allowed to fail is, well -- unthinkable."

"Municipal bonds ... selling at historically high ratios relative to U.S. Treasuries, offer attractive price appreciation potential, or at the very least a defensiveness with high carry that a 2 1/2 percent 10-year Treasury cannot," Gross said.

According to Municipal Market Data, top-rated 30-year munis now yield 161 percent and 10-year munis yield 133 percent of comparable Treasuries.

Triple A rated munis started 2008 yielding a more normal 85 percent of 30-year Treasuries and 79 percent of 10-year government bonds.

Meanwhile, Gross said he doubted the U.S. economy was in for the type of deflation that markets are forecasting, making TIPS a good buy.

Current ultra-low Treasury yields "cannot possibly be maintained unless deflation, as opposed to inflation, becomes the odds-on favorite," he said.

Market-based break-even inflation rates now point to a consumer price index averaging negative 1 percent for the next 10 years, which Gross termed "possible, but not likely."

On the corporate bond side, yields of 6 percent or more for intermediate maturities are still common, Gross said.

"Investors should recognize the value of high-quality, investment-grade corporate bonds in many markets."

Otherwise, PIMCO continues to maintain a strategy of buying assets that are under the federal bailout "umbrella."

"Shake hands with the government ... their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond," Gross said.

Gross said investors needed to be vigilant about higher inflation over the long term, given the "near certainty of future budget deficits approaching 6 percent to 7 percent of GDP."

(Additional reporting by Karen Pierog; Editing by Kenneth Barry)