Showing posts with label governement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label governement. Show all posts

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Ten Year Treasury Should Worry Investors (Chart)


Ten Year Treasury Constant Maturity

For several weeks, I have been writing about longer dated Treasury securities and the importance of paying attention to interest rates if you are an investor.

The ten year Treasury interest rate is moving up fast. This week it challenged and broke the important 3.125 area. At the same time, the FOMC reaffirmed its intention of buying treasury securities in size.
Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.
The Fed can hold down short term interest rates until inflation picks up. However, the Fed cannot hold down long term interest.

I also posted charts showing the growth of the Fed's balance sheet and the explosive growth in money supply.

The bond vigilantes are coming back. Soon this will be the talk of the town. And, discussion about inflation and risk premiums will bring new jitters into the stock market.

You heard it here first.

Ten Year Treasury 501
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


Sunday, March 15, 2009

Bad Omen for U. S. Government Debt


The cost of buying a credit default sway (CDS) on U. S. government debt is soaring. The spread has widened from 14 basis points a year ago to 97 basis points now. To put this in perspective, the cost to buy insurance against the possible default of U.S. government bonds (sovereign debt) has risen to $97,000 per $1,000,000 of debt. Yikes. This makes the cost of buying insurance roughly equivalent to that of France.

The potential for a downgrade of U. S. sovereign debt is listed as considerable by Moody's. Moody's describes the current situation for the debt as:
Resilient Aaa, whose ratings are being tested but, in our view, display sufficient capacity to grow out of their debt and repair the damage.


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