Buffett Inflation has the "potential" to be worse than the 1970s

He added that inflation “has the potential” to be worse than the double-digit rates of the 1970s. “It depends on the wisdom of our policies, what we do with” new government spending. Buffett said that Republicans need to stand behind the Obama administration, but Obama and Democrats should not use the crisis “to roll Republicans.”

Other highlights:

• The economy "can't turn around on a dime" and a turnaround "won't happen fast."
• Five years from now, the economy will be running fine. The strength of the American system will pull it through, just as it has many times in the past.
  
• Democrats and Republicans should work together and not try to take advantage of the economic situation to achieve partisan goals.
• Inflation has the "potential" to be worse than the 1970s.
• Most banks are in "pretty good shape" and can "earn their way out" of the current problems given the low cost of funds. Banks, however, "need to get back to banking."
• Extremely important that the government make clear depositors won't lose their money if banks fail. Obama needs to make a "clear statement" in support of the banking system.
• Berkshire is restricted from buying more American Express stock, but that doesn't mean it is not a "hell of a buy" at $10 a share.
• Wishes he had written the New York Times "Buy American" piece a few months later, but stands by the basic argument that you'll do better over a ten-year period with stocks that you will with Treasuries. He said in the article he wasn't calling the bottom of the stock market, and he still isn't.
  
• Buffett says derivatives are not "evil" and to be avoided at all costs, but they are "dangerous" and should be used very carefully. He still expects to make money on the long-term "put option" equity derivative contracts Berkshire has written. 
• Housing market could work through, or "sop up," its excess supply in as little as three years if new construction is reduced to a level below natural population growth
• The U.S. economy was not a "house of cards" over the past ten years, but mistakes were made when it came to borrowing money.
• Mark-to-market accounting should be retained, but regulators shouldn't use it so much to require insitutions to increase their reserves.
• "Probably the uptick rule" is a good idea.
• Mistake to "demonize" corporate executives for using private jets. Having a jet has helped Berkshire make deals in the past.
• Praises Ben Bernanke's leadership as Federal Reserve Chairman.

Warren Buffett to CNBC: Economy Has "Fallen Off a Cliff"

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. In addition to being an experienced writer he taught at the University of Georgia , was an Asociate Director and Limited Partner at Bear Stearns, was CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. Bob currently resides in Delray Beach, FL where he cares for his mother, Dorothy, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. His content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, BlogCritics, and a growing list of newspaper websites (15). Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

According to the "Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions" what lesson do we "learn from history"?

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Question: According to the "Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions" what lesson do we "learn from history"?
Answer: that people don’t learn from history
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Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions

Posted By: Alex Crippen | Executive Producer
cnbc.com

As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future. This time around, CNBC.com has a collection of prognostications from CNBC bloggers on a special page: Predictions '09.

Last year around this time, Warren Buffett Watch offered its Eight Predictions for '08 .. and Beyond.

In keeping with Buffett's long-term way of looking at things, the eight predictions were intentionally on the 'timeless' side of the predicting spectrum.

Here they are again, with a little bit of editing. This could be the start of a new holiday tradition!

-----------------

Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future.

Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.

Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely."

With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.

1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)

2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."

3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.

4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"

5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."

6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."

7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A:

Class B:

Questions? Comments? Email me at buffettwatch@cnbc.com

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