Sunday, April 19, 2009

Inflation Expectation, Gasoline and Hershey Bar Up (Graph)

The University of Michigan’s latest reading of consumer sentiment showed expectations for inflation over the next year rising in April to 3%, from 2% in March. This is likely due to the recent rise in gasoline prices and the recent large increase in the price of the eight ounce hershey bar.

I don't know about you, but when I come out of the grocery store after spending 30 bucks one of two things is happening:
  • I am getting a lot stronger
  • Or, the bags are a lot lighter.
There is a third alternative. The bags weight the same, and I spent 40 bucks.

I learned a long time ago that trends are slow to develop. It will take a while for inflation to gain some momentum on the upside. This means it takes some time for large rises in the monetary base and in the Fed's balance sheet to take effect.

The chart below is updated through March due to a data embargo. So you will have to use your imagination and add in April's three percent number.

University of Michigan Inflation Expectation 418
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