According to Jim Goldman, what is HP blaming for its Q1 revenue shortfall prediction?

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According to Jim Goldman, what is HP blaming for its Q1 revenue shortfall prediction?

Answer: currency conditions

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HP's Good News Actually 'Really' Good

Last week when Hewlett-Packard pre-released its Fourth Quarter earnings, the news was very good indeed, re-iterated today with the company's formal earnings release.

But the HP news might actually be better than first thought, and here's why:

The company not only beat the Street's fourth quarter earnings per share expectations, HP also increased EPS expectations for its first fiscal quarter and its full year fiscal 2009.

But at the same time, the company lowered its revenue forecast and that got tongues wagging that HP might be seeing some kind of more serious global slowdown in personal computer sales. That news was matched later in the week when Dell released its earnings, soundly beating bottomline projections even though it missed topline expectations by more than $1 billion. Worries of the global PC slowdown became real, and everyone seemed to say that operational excellence at both companies seem to be paying off.

Not so fast: while it's certainly true that Mark Hurd's management style has turned HP's balance sheet upside down since he took over, squeezing far more profits out of every sale; and it's certainly true that Michael Dell's massive restructuring and cost- and expense- cutting strategies are juicing Dell's bottom line, something else is at work here. At least for HP.

Buried in HP's release, as the company talks about guidance for the first quarter and full year 2009, the company acknowledges the grim, global, economic conditions. But rather than take that one step further and ascribe its revenue shortfall to those macro-economic issues, the company instead blames unfavorable currency exchange rates for the lowered expectations. HP says those conditions will lead to a 5 percent revenue shortfall for its first fiscal quarter and 6 percent to 7 percent for the full year. Not a sales slowdown. Not market softness. But currency conditions. That sends a powerful message that the world's biggest PC maker doesn't seem to be tracking the kind of slowdown that so many market researchers have been pointing to these last few months.

Not only is that good news for HP, but Dell too. And Intel. And Microsoft. And so many others. That's a big of good news I don't think many analysts were counting on. Couple that with the strides HP made in almost every one of its business units—most notable its Personal Systems Group and its on-fire laptop computer sales and its Services division which saw revenue double because of the recent acquisition of EDS, and it seems HP could be a key island for investors looking for some kind of safe-haven right now.

But it's HP's bellwether status that's got me intrigued. The company touches so many industries in so many regions around the world. This report, and that currency nugget, should not be ignored, or overstated.

HP profit growth driven by EDS, cost cuts
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